Will 2026 be the year buyers stop waiting? Nearly every major forecaster agrees the market will be more active than 2025—but beyond that, predictions diverge sharply. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) expects robust 14% sales growth², while Realtor.com projects a modest 1.7% bump¹. Both could be right depending on the market, neighborhood, and price tier.

For anyone planning to buy, sell, or simply understand their equity position in 2026, the headline forecasts matter less than the fundamentals: rates should settle slightly lower, inventory may improve modestly, prices are expected to rise more slowly, and the market appears to be returning to a more normal rhythm after the pandemic era.

The 2025 Context: Why the Market Stayed Frozen

The 2025 housing market disappointed. Mortgage rates remained stubbornly above 6.5%, suppressing demand and keeping transaction volumes near historic lows⁸. As of mid-2025, more than 80% of U.S. homeowners hold mortgage rates below 6%, reinforcing the lock-in effect and keeping would-be sellers on the sidelines³.

Affordability challenges became acute. The typical first-time buyer’s median age rose to 40 years old⁴, reflecting the reality that elevated rates and prices pushed homeownership further out of reach for many households. The market didn’t crash—but it didn’t fully heal either.

2026 Predictions: Where Forecasters Agree and Disagree

Mortgage Rates: Consensus on Modest Improvement

Rate forecasts cluster tightly in the 6.0% to 6.4% range—modest, but meaningful compared to 2025. The key question isn’t whether rates dip; it’s whether that dip changes behavior at scale.

Existing Home Sales: The Uncertainty Factor

Sales projections vary widely—reflecting uncertainty around how quickly the lock-in effect fades and how soon buyers accept 6% as the “new normal.”

Even modest changes in consumer psychology can swing results within this range. If employment stays strong and households regain confidence, sales can trend toward the higher forecasts. If the labor market softens, activity may land closer to the low end.

Home Prices: Continued Appreciation Expected

Most forecasters still expect prices to rise in 2026—but at a slower, more historically typical pace. Forecasts cluster between 0.5% and 4%.

*Based on a Q2 2025 median price of $410,800 (as stated in the blog draft).

The tighter agreement on prices (vs. sales) suggests forecasters see supply-demand fundamentals continuing to support values even if transactions remain constrained. Inventory remains below truly “balanced” levels after years of underbuilding, and many owners have substantial equity—reducing forced sales.

What This Means for Buyers

Accepting the New Rate Reality

With rates expected to settle around 6.0%–6.4% in 2026, buyers waiting for pandemic-era rates may need to recalibrate. Rates below 3% were tied to emergency policy and are unlikely to return soon. Planning around mid-6% levels is more realistic, with refinancing as a future option if rates drop further.

Improved Supply and Buyer Leverage

Inventory is improving compared to the tightest years, giving buyers more choice and flexibility¹. Days on market have lengthened, bidding wars are less common, and sellers are often more open to contingencies, repairs, and concessions⁵.

Pricing and Competition Dynamics

Prices are still forecast to rise modestly. That means waiting may not produce meaningfully lower prices—even if rates ease. The upside: slower appreciation reduces urgency, allowing buyers to be selective and strategic.

First-Time Buyer Challenges

First-time buyers still face the steepest hurdles. The median age rising to 40 highlights how affordability pressures and higher down payments delayed entry for many households⁴. In 2026, strategy matters: improve credit, build savings, explore low-down-payment programs, and consider more affordable submarkets.

What This Means for Sellers

Evaluating the Mortgage Rate Trade-Off

Lock-in remains real—but equity can offset higher borrowing costs for downsizers, relocations, or those reducing housing expenses. Life events are increasingly outweighing rate comparisons as 6% begins to look like a durable baseline.

Pricing Strategy

Accurate pricing is critical. Overpricing increases days on market and can stigmatize a listing, leading to reductions. Buyers are more patient and better informed, with more alternatives than recent years.

Concessions Are Becoming a Normal Tool

Concessions like closing cost credits, rate buydowns, and repair allowances are increasingly common—often a practical way to bridge affordability without cutting the headline price.

Preparation and Presentation Are Decisive

With more inventory, presentation matters again. Move-in-ready homes command stronger interest; properties needing work tend to linger. Small improvements and professional photography can materially impact outcomes.

What This Means for Renters

For many households, renting remains a pragmatic choice in 2026—often with lower monthly costs and more flexibility than ownership in a mid-6% rate environment. The rent-versus-buy decision depends heavily on location, finances, and how long you plan to stay.

For renters who aspire to buy, 2026 may be best viewed as a preparation period: strengthen credit, build savings, reduce debt, and track target markets. For others, continuing to rent can be a rational choice—not a failure to “time the market.”

Conclusion: A Market in Transition

The 2026 housing market looks defined less by dramatic change and more by gradual normalization. Rates likely remain in the low-to-mid 6% range, sales may improve, and prices may rise modestly. The market rewards realistic expectations, financial readiness, and decisions grounded in personal circumstances rather than predictions of dramatic shifts.

2026 Forecast Mortgage Rates Home Prices Buyers & Sellers